Sprinkled amidst the euphoria of Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee for President were well-worn pebbles of angst: millions of people, excited about a brilliant, qualified Black woman assuming the highest office in the land, worried that white voters, particularly in suburban and rural parts of battleground states, would never vote for her. One NY Times article (which I can’t read because when their editorial board called on Biden to drop out, but not Trump, that was the last straw–I canceled my subscription) is titled “Some Black Voters Say They Wonder if a Black Woman Can Win.” And I imagine countless text message chains contained similar refrains: “I am so excited to vote for Kamala, but…Can she win?” Meaning, will the average white voter, especially white male voter, cast a ballot for her?

When we ask these questions, when we wonder if America “is ready” for a Black female president, we make two fundamental mistakes. First, we accept defeat before the battle has even been waged; in so doing, we cede ground–emotional, practical, financial, political–to the other side. And second, we assume that past is prologue, that people’s opinions are fixed, that nothing can change, that the safest bet it always the best bet.

How quickly we forget that, in 2008, a Black man whose middle name is Hussein–I remember the fretting over that; will voters accept someone with a name like that?–won the general election with 52.9% of the popular vote and 365 of 538 electoral votes. It was a landslide! Barack Obama won Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio–states that (with the exception of North Carolina), are not even contested in this cycle. Not only that, but Democrats ended up with control of the House and a filibuster-proof 60-40 supermajority in the Senate! And in 2012, Obama was re-elected with 332 electoral voters, a smaller margin–he didn’t win Indiana and North Carolina this time–but still greater than Trump’s electoral college count in 2016 (304) and Biden’s in 2020 (306).

In our stupid electoral college system, small shifts in voter turnout can mean the difference between winning and losing. In 2016, had Hillary Clinton received 79,316 more votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would have won the election; in 2020, Biden won Georgia by just 12,670 votes, Pennsylvania by 81,660, Arizona by 10,457, Michigan by 154,188, and Wisconsin by 20,682. When you consider that only 66.7% of eligible voters voted in 2020, you can see how a small increase in excitement amongst Democratic voters–and / or a small lack of excitement amongst Republicans–can mean the difference between, well, America remaining a democracy and not.

Rather than tailoring our messaging, our selection of candidates, and our policies to some boogeyman white voter, it is imperative for us to excite and inspire the people who agree with our platform–or who can be persuaded to support it. Biden was forced to drop out of the 2024 election not because his record hasn’t been phenomenal (I think he’s the best president since LBJ, at least on domestic issues), but because he didn’t have the energy to make the case against Trump–a case that is rather easy to make, what with his 34 felony convictions, civil judgement for rape, January 6, being anti-choice, etc.

This same bending before an assumed foe we must win over applies to other areas of American politics. Consider the Affordable Care Act, AKA Obamacare. While it was undoubtedly a net positive for millions of Americans who previously had no health insurance or were denied insurance due to pre-existing conditions, it was not the transformational legislation America needed. Out of fear of the insurance industry and other business interests, elements like a public option–a government-sponsored insurance plan that would compete with private insurers, as happens in most other Western democracies–was dropped.  (The Supreme Court also neutered the legislation by allowing states to opt-out of Medicaid expansion, to the detriment of millions of residents of Red states like Florida, where “owning the libs” is more important than benefiting families.)

A similar dynamic exists in climate, where moderates and even left-of-center elected officials and advocates shy away from “extreme” policies, like a tax on carbon, for fear of angering the oil industry. The thing is, yes, the oil industry and the health insurers and big business in general are powerful and they throw that power around in the halls of Congress. But the electorate is, in general, ahead of the policies Congress passes. For instance, “roughly two-thirds of Americans” support a tax on carbon, which many economists believe is the most effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But the last time Congress tried to pass one, in 2009, ended in failure; and the negotiations around the Inflation reduction Act didn’t even contemplate a carbon tax. We can’t be shy about doing things that are, you know, imperative for the future of a livable planet, for the preservation of democracy, for the health and wellbeing of all Americans.

In short, when leaders lead with authenticity and wisdom, people will do more than follow–they’ll work to carry out a shared vision for prosperity. Analyzing polls can help leaders understand where voters are today, but they don’t say anything about where they can go tomorrow. The job of a leader is to have a vision for where they want to take the nation and chart a path toward getting a majority of Americans–and the officials they elect to represent them in office–to meet them there. In fact, part of what propelled Biden to victory in 2020 was the coalition he built with Bernie Sanders, AOC, and groups like the Sunrise Movement: according to Pew Research, “Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points.”

So, can Kamala Harris win? Damn right she can. In fact, I have no doubt she WILL win: because more people are excited to work and vote for her than there are people excited to work and vote for Trump, especially young people, women, and people of color. And Kamala has the energy to go out and make the case for her candidacy and the danger of Trump. That alone will be enough to nudge her ahead in states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; and, in turn, to make her the first female President! This is not a fait accompli, however; it’s up to us to do the hard work to stop fascism in America.